Niche marketing aims at swing voters in 17 key states
By Jeff Zeleny
Tribune national correspondent
March 30, 2004
ST. LOUIS --
It may be seven months until Election Day, but as viewers of "The Oprah
Winfrey Show," "Jeopardy" and even college basketball have
discovered, an unprecedented television air war is under way between President
Bush and Sen. John Kerry.
In 17 battleground states and on specialty cable channels nationwide, the
candidates and independent Democratic groups have spent nearly $29 million to
promote themselves and define their opponent in the opening weeks of the general
election campaign. And like for a new brand of cold medicine or the latest model
of a sport-utility vehicle, the campaigns are beginning to target segments of
voters with surgical-like precision.
That's why in St. Louis recently, viewers of shows as varied as "American
Idol" and "America's Most Wanted" have seen a campaign ad from
Bush, but not Kerry. At the same time, Democratic commercials criticizing the
Bush have appeared on shows ranging from "The Simpsons" to "Judge
Judy."
On television screens, the 2004 presidential race is off to a furiously fast
start, with political pitches being broadcast months earlier than in previous
campaigns. More than ever before, niche marketing is being blended with
political strategy, hoping to win over a slice of undecided voters that analysts
believe will decide the election.
"Candidates are pretty much sold like toothpaste today with marketing
techniques taken from the business world," said Ken Warren, who studies
political communication at St. Louis University. "Thirty-second commercials
can be very, very effective. Some Americans learn more from the 30-second
commercials than from anything else."
The moment it became clear that Kerry would seal the Democratic nomination, the
Bush-Cheney campaign began aggressively targeting Missouri and 16 other states
that were closely divided in the 2000 presidential race. The Kerry campaign and
two well-financed, independent Democratic groups followed suit to complete an
advertising onslaught that provides a glimpse into the next seven months of the
race.
In addition to spending at least $15 million in the battleground states, Bush
also has paid considerable attention to expanding his support among male voters
by advertising on The Golf Channel, Travel & Leisure and CNBC. The Bush ads
also are frequently aired during sports programming on local stations across the
country, including a recent St. Louis Cardinals preseason special, a St. Louis
Blues hockey game and NASCAR coverage on Fox.
A Tribune examination of the ad placement, using data from an independent firm
that monitors political advertising, offered a show-by-show look inside the
barrage of commercials. The analysis, which covered ads aired during the first
three weeks of March, showed Kerry and the Democratic groups did not advertise
during televised sports in St. Louis but focused on programs that attracted more
female viewers, including "Joan of Arcadia," a drama, and daytime
shows such as "The People's Court."
The division between the sexes in the advertising strategy underscored the
potential challenges for both sides in the general election race. Strategists
said the Bush commercials on cable television were designed to drive up Kerry's
negative opinion-poll ratings among men and other demographic groups.
In a national USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll conducted one month ago, Kerry was
leading Bush by 8 percentage points. A survey released Monday showed that Bush
has ovecome the gap and is leading Kerry by 4 points. A majority of voters in
the new poll say they believe Kerry vacillates on major issues and would raise
taxes if elected--both topics that Bush has hammered again and again as he tries
to define Kerry.
Kerry unknown to many
"There is still a big chunk of Americans who don't know who John Kerry is.
This is a major opportunity to introduce him," said Ken Goldstein, who
directs the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison, which studies the presidential race. "They clearly had a
plan to take Kerry down, notch by notch, over the next few weeks."
Evan Tracey, chief operating officer for the independent tracking firm TNSMI/Campaign
Media Analysis Group, said Bush was able to directly target his supporters by
demographics, rather than geography, through advertising on specialty cable
channels. More than 85 percent of U.S. households have cable television, he
said, a significant increase from even four years ago.
"This is a cable television election," said Tracey, who monitors
political advertising for the Tribune and other clients in the nation's top 100
media markets. "Bush is doing an under-the-radar campaign on national
cable, which gauges the momentum of the race. He is the only one really reaching
out to a national audience with his advertising dollars."
While both candidates opened the campaign trying to bolster their supporters,
their commercials to reach swing voters often appear on the same programs.
Republicans and Democrats advertised heavily on local news programming, network
morning shows and highly rated programs such as "Dr. Phil,"
"Wheel of Fortune" and "Law and Order."
One set of commercials features the president sitting with First Lady Laura Bush
in the White House, talking about "steady leadership in times of
change." Another set shows Kerry, with black-and-white images from his
service in Vietnam, promising "a new direction for America."
The campaign ads, steeped in seriousness, are aired in succession with pitches
for common, household goods. A day of television viewing in St. Louis found the
political spots sandwiched between ads for an improved blend of prune juice, a
new lawnmower and countless offers for low mortgage rates or discount aluminum
siding.
While the candidates are trying to define one another, some political analysts
wonder whether Bush and Kerry are wasting money by spending millions on
advertising campaigns that could easily be forgotten by August, September or
October, when voters are likely to be paying closer attention.
"The amount of advertising this early is off the charts," Tracey said.
"Are voters really capable of sitting through this for 7 1/2 more months?
It's a lot to expect TV viewers to sit through and get used to."
While both candidates are relying upon Missouri as a bellwether state, far more
ads have been aired in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania since the advertising
campaign began in earnest March 3. More than $5 million has been spent in
Florida alone in the last month, the TNSMI/CMAG analysis showed while virtually
no money has been spent in Illinois, California or New York, where Bush has
ruled out waging a serious campaign.
Groups helping Kerry
It's not merely Bush and Kerry, though, who are bombarding television screens.
If that were the case, Kerry would be at a steep disadvantage. In the last
month, he has spent $3 million compared with Bush's $17 million.
In the first presidential race under new campaign finance provisions, Kerry is
benefiting from two liberal organizations funded by unlimited contributions from
wealthy Democratic donors. By law, the Media Fund and MoveOn.org are not allowed
to coordinate their spending with the Kerry campaign, but Republicans have
accused the groups of working in concert. The controversy is likely to be
resolved in the courts.
Until then, the Democratic organizations will offer the party's presumptive
nominee a considerable boost targeting voters with ads deeply critical of Bush.
In Springfield, Mo., the Kerry campaign ran only five television spots during
the first three weeks of March. But the independent groups aired 271
commercials, including several ads that reached a variety of niche viewers,
including those who watch the "U.S. Farm Report" and "The Andy
Griffith Show."
