With New Season Under Way, Prices for Commercials Vary Widely

By STUART ELLIOTT  (New York Times, 10/02/02)

As the fall season gets under way for the broadcast television networks, Madison Avenue is already separating the bargains from the overpriced merchandise — and determining which new shows will be tossed out altogether.

While it is still very early in the 2002-03 season, which officially began Sept. 23, media industry executives list "American Dreams," "CSI: Miami" and "Everwood" among the good buys. "Robbery Homicide Division" has found itself among the laggards. "Haunted" and "Push, Nevada" are among the new series that may have to say their goodbyes prematurely.

Advertiser scrutiny of the 38 new series is particularly pronounced this season because of the high prices the networks are currently charging for commercial time. Those rates, in what is known as the scatter market, are about 20 percent more than the hefty prices the networks were asking before the season began, when agencies agreed to spend more than $8 billion, a record.

One network, CBS, is virtually sold out in the scatter market from October through December, Gordon Hodge, the media and broadcasting analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners, estimated yesterday..

The most expensive ad rates on prime-time broadcast TV belong to "Friends," according to the annual survey of commercial prices undertaken by the trade publication Advertising Age.

A 30-second spot on "Friends" on NBC costs an average of $455,700, an increase of 28.9 percent from the $353,500 of last season, when the series bore the third-highest average price tag in prime time. Though the cost appears exorbitant, it may be a bargain. The initial episode last Thursday drew the best numbers ever for the nine season premieres of the series, attracting a total of 34 million viewers and handily besting all competition in highly desirable demographic categories like viewers ages 18 to 49 and women ages 18 to 34.

The lowest commercial rates belong to the Friday movie on UPN, the survey reported, at an average of $12,871. And judging by the ratings of the film shown last Friday, "The Crow 3," that price may even be too much. It was "barely visible," according to Marc Berman, who analyzes ratings for Mediaweek.com, and was among the underperformers he designated as "losers" that evening.

The series with the highest average price in last year's survey, "Survivor," on CBS Thursday opposite "Friends," fell to third place, at $418,750, down 6.3 percent. Both this season and last season, "ER," on NBC on Thursday, was in second place in the survey; the average price of $438,514 this season is up 3.1 percent from the average price last season of $425,400.

Thursday is the most lucrative night for the broadcast networks, Advertising Age reported, with 7 of the 10 priciest series for ads. That reflects the strong interest among retailers, movie studios and other marketers in reaching consumers as they make their weekend shopping and entertainment plans.

Thursday this fall is looking to be a rerun of Thursday last season, when CBS, part of Viacom, and NBC, owned by General Electric, battled each other for ratings hegemony.

One reason is a drama series, "Without a Trace," that CBS introduced to take on "ER" at 10 p.m. It looks "as if it will be a successful show," said Michael Drexler, chief executive at the United States division of Optimedia International in New York, a media services agency that is part of the Zenith Optimedia Group, owned by the Cordiant Communications Group and the Publicis Groupe.

A 30-second spot on "Without a Trace" costs an average of $115,298, according to the Advertising Age survey, 73.7 percent less than the average price being charged by NBC for a commercial of that length during "ER."

By contrast, a Thursday series on ABC, "Push, Nevada," is already being mentioned as among the first of the newcomers likely to be canceled. The series was scheduled by ABC, part of the Walt Disney Company, at 9 p.m., where it is confronting strong competition from "CSI: Crime Scene Investigation" on CBS and "Will & Grace" on NBC.

A 30-second spot on "Push, Nevada" — which may remain on the air longer than its ratings would dictate because of a $1 million contest that is part of the plot — is being sold for an average price of $95,812, the survey reported. That is far less than "Will & Grace," at an average of $376,617, and "CSI," at an average of $280,043.

Steve Sternberg, senior vice president and director for audience analysis at Magna Global USA in New York, a media services agency owned by the Interpublic Group of Companies, listed the ratings results for "Push, Nevada" on what he termed "the minus side" of the season so far, along with "Haunted," a new series on Tuesday on UPN, part of Viacom, and "That Was Then," a new series on ABC on Friday.

In the category of "disappointments," Mr. Sternberg included "Robbery Homicide Division," a new Friday drama on CBS, which is facing strong competition from a returning series, "Law and Order: Special Victims Unit" on NBC. That matchup is one of several, Mr. Sternberg said, in which networks scheduled programs of similar genres or audience appeal against each other, rather than "counterprogramming" as they typically do to attract different viewers.

"Look at Wednesday night at 9," Mr. Sternberg said, "when there are four series all up against each other that are all aimed at adults 18 to 34, who are tough to reach." They are "The Bachelor II" on ABC; "Amazing Race" on CBS; "Fastlane" on Fox Broadcasting, part of the News Corporation; and "The Twilight Zone" on UPN.

Among the new series Mr. Sternberg listed as solid performers so far were "American Dreams," on NBC on Sunday, with an average price of $108,288; "Everwood" on WB on Monday, owned by AOL Time Warner and the Tribune Company, with an average price of $72,204; and "8 Simple Rules for Dating My Teenage Daughter" on ABC on Tuesday, with an average price of $144,438.

A report by MindShare, a media services agency owned by the WPP Group, also praised the results for "American Dreams" and "Everwood."

Both Mr. Sternberg and Mr. Drexler agreed that the one likely new hit of the season is "CSI: Miami," a spinoff of "CSI" that is on CBS Monday night.

According to the survey, CBS is charging an average of $164,870 for each 30-second spot during "CSI: Miami." That represents an increase of 7.9 percent from the average of $152,800 that the network charged last year when it ran "Family Law" in that time slot.

As they sometimes say in Miami, such a deal.