Turning Play Time to Thinking Time.

Review by Mike Gange

Scorecasting: the hidden influences behind how sports are played and games are won
By Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim
Crown, $26 (US) $30 (CDN), 278 pages

Sports sections of the news media are often considered to be the “sand-box” of journalism. ABC TV reporter Howard Cosell coined the term and, despite covering sports most of his television career, complained that sports writers did not delve deeply into the issues in sports. Cosell complained, for example, that there were too many clichés and unexplored assumptions in the sports world that are taken at face value and not examined further. Critics of the sports coverage often complain that sports writing is comprised mostly of action/ reaction stories and not more in-depth cause and effect explanations that one might find in other sections of the news.

Into this sandbox come Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim, a finance professor from the University of Chicago and a senior writer at Sports Illustrated, respectively. Suddenly, sports coverage shifts from play-time, to thinking time. The stories in Scorecasting are provocative and profound. They are thorough and well-crafted, providing analysis that can be read and re-read, enjoyed as much for their effectiveness as their aesthetics. There is a lot more to think about here than the one-upmanship that frequently takes place over beer-and-pretzels.

“There is no I in team” is one of the issues they explore. And yet, when the game is on the line, it takes a superstar such as Michael Jordan to come through for the win.  Moskowitz and Wertheim examine how Jordan did step up as needed, but when criticized by the coaches or the media, Jordan’s response was that there may be no I in team, but there was an “I” in win.

As you might expect, the book does not shy away from statistical analysis. A first team all-star on a team, the authors explain, gives a 16 percent chance of the team going deep into the play offs, and adds a 7 percent chance of winning a championship. Having two first team all-stars on a team increases those odds 37 percent chance of making the finals and a 25 percent chance of winning it all. Increase the number of all-stars on a team to three, and the numbers jump again to 70 percent chance of making the finals and 48 percent chance of winning the championships. No wonder, then, there was such a hullabaloo when Lebron James joined Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade on the roster of the Miami Heat. 

Is there such a thing as home field advantage? It seems that there is. Moskowitz and Wertheim prove it, with statistics from major league baseball, NHL, professional and college football, basketball and international soccer. With stats that range from just over 50 % in baseball to just under 70% in international soccer matches, Moskowitz and Wertheim explain that it is not just the home team hoopla such as cheerleaders, announcers, enthusiastic fans, a good night’s sleep, etc that makes this so, but there is the bottom line to consider:

“There is considerable economic incentive for home teams to win as often as possible,” they write. “When the home team wins, the consumer – that is, the ticket buying fans – leave happy. The better the home team plays, the more likely fans are to buy tickets and hats and T-shirts, renew their luxury suite leases…The better the home team plays, the more likely businesses and corporations are to buy sponsorships and the more likely local television networks are to bid for rights fees. A lot of sports marketing, after all, is driven by the desire to associate with a winner.”

Moskowitz and Wertheim give us a fresh approach to understanding sports events. Their statistical analysis makes for interesting reading, helping us to predict the likelihood of a winning team, the accuracy of the strike count or the success and value of a first round draft pick. In their epilogue, they say they want to write more, and invite readers to send their suggestions. And indeed, that is one of the weaknesses of this book. There are only so many ways one can mathematically examine sports. It is, after all, human performance, however it may be shaped by the media coverage and the leather-lunged fans in the stands. There is still lots of room in the sandbox of sports journalism, but Scorecasting will provide some thinking time for our play time.   

Mike Gange teaches media studies and journalism in Fredericton.