Big Three Networks Dim Their Lights on Kerry

by Timothy Karr

published by MediaChannel.Org

Big Three Networks Dim Their Lights on Kerry

The Kerry campaign's share of network news coverage has been on a steady slide since the Massachusetts senator all but clinched his party nomination after the March 2 "Super Tuesday" primaries. According to a survey of media election coverage during the first half of 2004, President George W. Bush's share of the nightly newscasts has risen steadily through the year, while Senator John Kerry's image and words faded from network screens.

The study, released today by Media for Democracy and Media Tenor, is based on daily monitoring of network evening newscasts from January 1 through June 30, 2004.

During an average evening newscast in June, the networks were nearly four times as likely to mention President Bush as the Democratic presidential candidate. By contrast, in March of this year, network mention of Senator Kerry (40 percent of all coverage of Kerry, Bush and Ralph Nader) nearly rivaled coverage of incumbent Bush (59 percent).

ABC World News Tonight gave the least attention to Kerry and his campaign in June, devoting only 15.8 percent of its candidate coverage to the Massachusetts senator. In June, the half-hour newscast devoted 83.2 percent of its candidate coverage to Bush, according to the Media Tenor/Media for Democracy data.

Continuing analysis into July shows that Kerry enjoyed a jump in network coverage following his selection of Senator John Edwards as his running mate, but that this attention flattened to June levels during the last week surveyed -- July 12 through 16.

Alarm Bells?

"John Kerry has had an increasingly hard time competing with the president for television news coverage," said Media Tenor President Roland Schatz. "Bush, as head of state, was expected to have a natural edge in coverage, but our study shows a precipitous decline in focus on Kerry, which should be ringing alarms at the Democratic contender's campaign headquarters."

Four years earlier, Democratic frontrunner Al Gore captured an even share (50.1 percent) of the network spotlight in June 2000, by comparison to then Texas Governor George Bush's portion (49.9 percent) of all coverage devoted to the candidates, according to the study.

"Voters are reluctant to vote a standing president out of office unless his opponent maintains high visibility," Says Schatz. "John Kerry has not been able to consistently attract network attention since the primaries."

The Media Tenor data support a New York Times/CBS June 27 poll in which 36 percent of Americans said that they were undecided or had not heard enough about Kerry to form an opinion about whether to support him in the November ballot.

View Media Tenor's findings

The Democratic Party's plans to leverage next week's Democratic National Convention to showcase their candidate for undecided Americans suffered a setback earlier this month when ABC, CBS and NBC elected to cut back network coverage of the conventions to an average of three hours per network, per convention. In 1976, each of the three major commercial networks provided on average more than nine hours of live broadcasts from each convention.

But even factoring in the number of new cable stations devoting their primetime coverage to the conventions this year, overall television viewership has been in steady decline since the 1970s. That means that candidates have to make aggressive use of whatever coverage opportunities they can get, analysts say.

"For Kerry to cross the threshold and his image to become clearer to the public, he does need to get more coverage," Carroll Doherty, editor for the Pew Research Center, said. "The television lull between the primaries and the conventions is always tough for the challenger."

Good Coverage Is Often Bad News

Though many voters may not have a well-defined view of the Democratic candidate yet, Kerry is still running neck-in-neck with Bush in the many presidential preference polls that Pew Research Center monitors throughout the year. Doherty notes that while candidate Bush gets more attention from the networks' coverage, the coverage is not always positive.

Media Tenor's study shows network news stories about Bush had a more negative tone than stories about Kerry. Of the nearly 1,176 statements made about Bush during the networks' half-hour newscasts in the first six months of the year, Media Tenor classified 24.1 percent (or 284 statements) as negative. Stories that had a particularly negative cast included coverage tying Bush to terrorism advisor Richard Clarke's 9-11 Commission testimony, the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and escalating violence in Iraq.

On average, this negative cast receded in June, largely due to positive coverage of Bush's appearances as head of state during the D-Day celebrations in France and the G-8 conference in the US.

The study categorizes only 13.1 percent of Kerry's January through June network coverage as negative.

Buying Ad Time to Take Up the Slack

Many voters now learn more about candidates from the tidal wave of political ads that have come to dominate primetime viewing in many swing-voter states this year. Kerry's camp has already spent more than $80 million on political ads to put their candidate before voters, a massive windfall for eager local broadcasters.

In western Michigan, on an average night in July television viewers are 13 times more likely to hear about candidates and their positions from political ads than from the 5:30, 6 and 11 O'clock local newscasts, according to a recent study by the Grand Rapids Institute of Information Democracy. A similar picture is emerging in other hotly contested election states where political ads do more to educate (or in many cases misinform) voters about federal candidates than the local news.

For the Kerry campaign, coverage by the national networks of the primaries and convention was the hoped-for antidote to the dearth of local political coverage.

With the networks planning to scale back on convention coverage, the campaigns are now turning to the three televised debates scheduled to begin in September to regain mainstream airtime denied their candidates in the first half of the year.

"The first debate is crucial for Kerry," Doherty said, but he remains skeptical that mainstream network coverage has the ability to influence voters as it had in the past.

"We're looking at a new media universe where mainstream political coverage is missing a lot of people, especially younger voters," Doherty said. "As a result, the broad public is much harder to reach for campaigns."

-- Timothy Karr is the executive director of MediaChannel.org.



from USA Today
For election coverage, we project NBC News as the winner
With Election 2004 behind us, experts have a wide range of views on how broadcast and cable news outlets stacked up. But many agree that in a campaign in which media missteps often got as much attention as the candidates, being scandal-free held special value.

In that sense, NBC News scored big. "Nobody blamed NBC for anything," including this year's favorite tag, political bias, says Robert Lichter of the Center for Media and Public Affairs.

For the top-rated news network, often accused of going the "infotainment" route, this election also proved those critics wrong. Outgoing anchor Tom Brokaw sprinted this last year, including a memorable Dateline with both President Bush and John Kerry; Sunday talk-show king Tim Russert contributed on-target political analysis; Today's Matt Lauer got a scoop after Bush said the U.S. "may not win" the war on terrorism.

And lanky NBC White House correspondent David Gregory (nicknamed "Stretch" by the president) "has a way with Bush, and is not afraid to zing him," says network news analyst Andrew Tyndall.

But doubts linger about Brokaw's heir, Brian Williams. Tyndall says that his being relegated on Election Night to reporting from a basement studio in NBC's Democracy Plaza — not next to his mentor Brokaw — signalled that Williams "failed to put his stamp on this election."

How other outlets fared:

• At ABC News, political chief Mark Halperin earned his stripes with his political weblog, The Note, now required reading for political junkies — but was flogged for his memo suggesting that sins by the Bush team deserved more scrutiny than sins by the Kerry camp.

High marks go to correspondent Brian Ross for his revived "money trail" segments, and to Jake Tapper for his "fact check" pieces. Anchor Diane Sawyer was first with Howard Dean after his famous "scream" and Bill Clinton after heart surgery.

But ABC continues to be dogged by charges from conservatives that it leans left. Halperin's memo "implied that journalists get to tell us the truth, as opposed to us deciding for ourselves," Lichter says.

Meanwhile, Ted Koppel and Nightline have been trumped by Comedy Central's Jon Stewart and his Daily Show in terms of political late-night buzz, and political guru George Stephanopoulos has yet to gain traction on ratings-challenged This Week — signs that both Nightline and Week need rehab.

•CBS was having one of its best political years following Dan Rather's 60 Minutes scoop on abuses at Iraq's Abu Ghraib prison. But then he and his network were hit by "Memogate," in which Rather cited documents of dubious origin to question Bush's military service.

Conservatives crowed that the scandal proved CBS News leans left, a charge the network denies.

Viewers were rightly put off by CBS' denial, then subsequent admission, that the reporting was flawed, says Dale Harrison, an Auburn University journalism professor. "All we got was a vague apology, and we still don't know what the facts are."

On Election Night, Rather's patented turns of phrases — so-called "Danisms" such as "This race is hotter than the devil's anvil" — "had become painful," says Joe Angotti, a Northwestern University journalism professor.

Network fears of making a wrong call had Rather repeating — perhaps to a fault — that CBS "would 'rather be last than wrong,' and so they were," says Lichter — at least according to network ratings.

•PBS and The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer had a strong year, with political operatives from all sides showing up regularly for in-depth interviews. PBS "lived up to its reputation for substance and balance," says Lichter, and solidified The NewsHour as "TV news for people who don't like TV news."

Lehrer proved again to be a no-nonsense debate host; Gwen Ifill, moderating the vice presidential debate, became a household name, at least for a night. As cable moves more toward confrontational shoutfests, NewsHour remains a quiet oasis, says Tyndall.

•Fox News Channel drew more viewers than any of the Big Three at the Republican Convention — an historic first in TV news but one likely to be repeated by Fox and other cable outlets, predicts Tom Rosenstiel of the Project for Excellence in Journalism.

By limiting convention coverage to a handful of hours in prime time — missing such key moments as the speech by rising Democratic star Barack Obama — "the networks signalled to the public, 'Don't turn to us as public institutions anymore. We are worried first about making money,' " Rosenstiel says.

Brit Hume, the former ABC News White House correspondent, clearly seems at home at Fox, as does another ABC defector, Chris Wallace. And right-leaning Fox may be in the catbird seat with the re-election of a conservative president. Not even a widely covered sex harassment scandal, since settled, involving star Bill O'Reilly could shake cable's No. 1-rated news channel, which drew 8 million viewers on Election Night.

Fox's success may be in its feisty, news-with-attitude style, which rivals are copying while trying not to be too obvious about it. At Fox, "attitude is the star," says Tyndall, "and the rule is, 'We're not afraid to make fun of people if we don't like them.' That's a whole new ball of wax in TV news."

• As for CNN, some think the granddaddy of cable news did fine, but others say that after 24 years its look and format are stale, and that CNN's tepid ratings reflect it.

Angotti says that CNN had "the best coverage on cable. Judy Woodruff and Jeff Greenfield are extremely qualified and clear-thinking reporters. Everything they say seems to make sense."

But Harrison says that "when you've been around for a long time, that can be a liability or an asset. CNN's model seems to be limping along, trying to keep up."

•MSNBC, the also-ran in cable news, showed signs of rejuvenation, outgunning CNN during the GOP convention with 1.3 million viewers. Buzz about Matthews' Hardball "makes me think NBC may be able to make MSNBC succeed," says Tyndall.

Matthews, famously parodied on Saturday Night Live, has "worked his way back into a respectable place at NBC News as a pundit — not a shouter," says Lichter.



Fox News, Media Elite, Nov. 8 Ny Times

Election Night 2004 delivered more than one decisive victory.
As Roger Ailes, the chairman of Fox News, and Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of its parent company, News Corporation, entertained their guests with cheeseburgers and hot dogs in a suite down the hall from the control room, Fox's cable news channel was dramatically consolidating its ratings gains of the past few years.
Fox News clobbered the other cable news networks, its 8.1 million viewers more than tripling its own election night prime-time performance in 2000. NBC, ABC and CBS, on the other hand, lost millions of viewers this year, according to Nielsen Media Research. And Fox News actually came closer to CBS in the ratings than CNN did to Fox News.
Yet the ratings bonanza presents a conundrum for Fox. It has long presented itself as the scrappy underdog, but its executives acknowledge that such a tactic becomes trickier when the network is ranked No. 1 among cable news channels.
Similarly, the network's success could undercut the very raison d'κtre of Fox News: that it exists as an alternative to what its executives and some of its on-air talent call, disdainfully and often, the media establishment. Fox News has now become popular enough - with an audience whose conservative political leanings track those of the voters who re-elected President Bush - to lay claim to its own place in the establishment.
In a telephone interview on Friday, Mr. Ailes wrestled with that identity crisis, alternating between exultation at the network's lead over CNN in the United States and expressions of hope that his employees would ignore what they had achieved.
"Everything in life is in your mind,'' Mr. Ailes said. "As long as we operate as underdogs, we're underdogs. The day we think we're No. 1, someone's going to sit down. And I don't want to walk into the newsroom and find anyone sitting down for very long.
"Being in the establishment has nothing to do with numbers,'' he added. "We'll always be the scrappy kids with the nose up against the glass.''To keep his staff hungry and maintain an us-vs.-them mentality, Mr. Ailes keeps upping the ante. Being the top-rated news channel on cable is far from his ultimate goal - he wants Fox News to be the top-rated cable network, period. That would mean nearly doubling its average daily viewership of 1.1 million to pass Nickelodeon.
Mr. Ailes is also pressing for earnings growth, adding that he is not content with profits "well north of $200 million'' that he said the network posted last year. And Fox News is moving ahead with plans that could result in the creation of a business news channel to take on CNBC, the cable channel that Mr. Ailes once led for General Electric.
These are heady times for a cable channel that was virtually ignored when it began in October 1996. MSNBC, the joint venture of NBC and Microsoft that began at about the same time, received significantly more news media attention.
But Mr. Ailes built a large newsgathering organization while adapting the talk-radio format to cable news. He allocated prime-time hours to opinionated, often conservative voices, and then watched the network gain viewers. Thanks to programs like "The O'Reilly Factor,'' which is currently the highest-rated cable news show, Fox News surpassed CNN in the ratings in January 2002 and now regularly attracts an average prime-time audience twice as large.
"You got in here when no one knew who you were, no one would return your calls,'' said Bill Shine, vice president of production for Fox News. "You'd try to book someone as a guest and they'd ask if you were the local affiliate. Now you've achieved some kind of success and you don't want it to go away.''
And Mr. Ailes's relentless management style pushes to keep that from happening. "What I've done is taught a lot of people not to rest on your laurels, to not think you can't do better,'' Mr. Ailes said.
Consider Paul Rittenberg, senior vice president of advertising sales at Fox News. He projects advertising revenues of $400 million for 2004, which he said would be a 30 percent increase over 2003. "Next year it better be $500 million,'' Mr. Rittenberg said, "or you'll be talking to someone else.''
A CNN spokeswoman, Christa Robinson, declined to comment, except to say that the network's revenues and profits were rising. The ratings of CNN's main domestic channel have also risen in recent months.
How Fox News performs in its continuing battle with CNN, which has more than a dozen networks, will play a large role in determining whether Mr. Rittenberg will reach his goals. CNN has long been able to charge higher advertising rates, even after Fox News eclipsed its ratings. In a front-page article in May, The Wall Street Journal estimated that Fox News was charging 75 to 80 percent of what CNN could get.
But Mr. Rittenberg contends that Fox has since eliminated that gap. A buyer at one prominent firm, Horizon Media, who insisted on anonymity so as not to burn bridges with either network, confirmed that the rates charged by the two were comparable.
But Ms. Robinson said that CNN charged more than Fox and received the higher rates because of its credibility and the number of "unique viewers'' it attracts. Fox News may reach a larger number of people in a given hour than CNN and they may watch Fox longer, but over the course of a month, more people watch CNN, according to Nielsen. "They act like the underdog because they are,'' Ms. Robinson said.
Mr. Rittenberg scoffs at the "unique viewer'' label. And some advertising buyers do not find that metric persuasive.
"As a buyer, the significance is consistency,'' said Sam Armando, director of television research for Starcom Worldwide, an advertising buyer. "If I'm looking for bigger audience, Fox News is the bigger audience.''
The advertising sales force at Fox News also has to deal with the cable network's reputation for leaning rightward, though not nearly as often as its corporate executives have had to defend against such charges.
While Mr. Ailes may have been a political adviser to three Republican presidents, he continues to vehemently rebut suggestions that the journalistic content offered on Fox News slants to the right. "Presenting a point of view is not necessarily biased,'' he said. "Eliminating a point of view is biased.''
The network eagerly takes up Mr. Ailes's claim. News organizations that label Fox News as conservative soon receive requests for corrections, even for a critic's work. Late last month Fox News's public relations staff pressed the editors of The Wall Street Journal for a correction after it ran an article about the Bush and Kerry strategies that mentioned the Bush campaign's media outreach. The resultant correction said that the News Corporation's Fox News "was incorrectly described" in a Page 1 article "as being sympathetic to the Bush cause."
Critics, including dogged liberal organizations like Media Matters, have begged to differ, and the network's coverage of the presidential campaign has provided them with plenty of fodder.
Discussing the impact of the recent Osama bin Laden video just before the election, Neil Cavuto, an anchor on Fox News, said the Qaeda leader was in effect wearing a campaign button for Mr. Kerry. And in early October, Fox News reprimanded its chief political correspondent, Carl Cameron, for fabricating several quotes ostensibly uttered by Mr. Kerry - many of them about a manicure - in a mock article mistakenly posted, briefly, on the Fox News Web site.
Asked if such examples were evidence of a conservative bias, Mr. Ailes laughed.
"Sometimes our people joke,'' Mr. Ailes said. "Sometimes it gets on the air.
"We'd rather do that,'' he added, "than have our shorts in a bunch, thinking we're really, really important.''
Tim Graham, a representative for the Media Research Center, which labels itself a conservative organization, said that although he thought it was easier to prove liberal bias at the broadcast networks than conservative bias at Fox News, he took issue with Mr. Ailes's blanket dismissal of such incidents. "You can only go so far with the 'that's just humor' defense,'' Mr. Graham said.
"These are the sorts of things that, if we see this with liberals, if someone made fun of Bush for being stupid, we would certainly notice and say, 'Bingo! That's evidence for us! That makes our case,' '' he said.
What seems less open to debate is that the audience for Fox News mirrors the majority that re-elected the president.
In June, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reported that the percentage of Fox News viewers who identify themselves as Republican was 41 percent, compared to 29 percent who identified themselves as Democrats, and that 52 percent of Fox viewers identified themselves as conservative. (CNN, by contrast, was found to be more popular with Democratic viewers.)
Mr. Ailes said he regarded the study as "a totally fraudulent survey done by a bunch of liberals.''
Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center, said, "It's a classic case of shoot the messenger.'' Mr. Kohut said his organization's financing came from a nonpartisan source, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and the survey results had been replicated in other studies. He added that Fox News's commentators had had no problem quoting approvingly from an earlier study by his organization - one that suggested that the news media was increasingly liberal.
Regardless of how Mr. Ailes characterizes his programming and audience, the Bush administration has endorsed its approach to the news, however indirectly. Journalists, including Dana Milbank of The Washington Post, have pointed out numerous instances in which television sets turned on by the White House staff or Bush campaign were preset to Fox News.
But whether that has resulted in the White House giving Fox an edge in its coverage, or whether it puts the channel in a better position for scoops during a Bush second term, is difficult to prove, according to several White House correspondents. For example, while Mr. Bush gave interviews to Mr. O'Reilly and another Fox News host, Sean Hannity, in the last weeks of the campaign, he also made himself available to Tom Brokaw on NBC and Charles Gibson on ABC.
Brian Besanceney, a White House spokesman, had no immediate comment. Mr. Ailes said the network had no inside track.
"We get worse access,'' Mr. Ailes said. "We're shown no favoritism. We don't want any. We're fine



THE NETWORKS

Once Bitten, Twice Tempted, but No Call in Wee Hours

By JACQUES STEINBERG and DAVID CARR

Published: November 4, 2004, New York Times

It was 2:16 on Wednesday morning when Michael Barone, an analyst for Fox News Channel, wheeled around in his chair and faced the four people charged with calling the presidential race on behalf of the network.

"I just got some spin from Rove on New Mexico,'' Mr. Barone said.

Karl Rove, President Bush's chief political strategist, was urging the network to call that state in the president's favor. New Mexico's five electoral votes would have pushed Mr. Bush over the top, and would have

 made Fox News the first network to name a winner.

The response from John Moody, senior vice president news-editorial for Fox News and the ultimate arbiter, came swiftly. "Not yet,'' Mr. Moody said.

And so no more crucial state calls would come on this election night at Fox, or at any other broadcast or cable news network. A night that began in near unanimity, born of changes made after the 2000 election night fiasco and of early data from surveys of voters leaving the polls that showed the president headed for defeat, would end in the equivalent of a hung jury, even though all the networks were using essentially the same raw materials of voter surveys and raw vote counts.

By 1 a.m. Wednesday, Fox, NBC and MSNBC had all given Ohio to Mr. Bush, assuring him of at least a tie, but had still declined to call the election. Meanwhile, CBS, ABC and CNN kept Ohio out of the Bush column, giving Senator John Kerry's camp some ultimately misplaced hope that its candidate might yet pull out the victory.

It was the starkest divide among the networks on a long election night that occasionally bucked the conventional wisdom. Here was Fox, for example, so often described - in liberal Web logs and elsewhere - as a broadcast annex of the White House, refusing an opportunity to be the first network to declare the president's re-election. Similarly, CBS News, which has been pounded by the right since it broadcast a flawed segment about President Bush's Vietnam-era National Guard service, was more aggressive than the other networks in calling some states for the president, at least in the early evening.

The skittishness of some of the other networks to make early calls, particularly on states assumed to be in the president's column and that ended up there, was rooted in frustration with variations between the voter surveys and the vote tallies. Those concerns were only heightened as news executives worried that a bad call would surely invite comparisons to the 2000 election, when each network bungled its call on Florida.

Still, it was on the question of how to analyze the results from Ohio that the differences among the network "decision desks'' became most apparent.

Fox News, which was the first to call Ohio for President Bush, at 12:40 a.m., did so with relative speed. Huddled around folding tables in a makeshift studio, Mr. Moody and three consultants examined Mr. Bush's lead of approximately 130,000 votes in the state and concluded that it would be virtually impossible for his Democratic opponent to catch up. They based their analysis on the so-called provisional ballots that remained to be counted - to win Ohio, Mr. Kerry would have had to win an overwhelming majority - and on the precincts that had yet to report results, including Republican-leaning Cincinnati.

"We agree,'' said John Gorman, the president of Opinion Dynamics, the network's outside polling unit. "Ohio, Bush.''

Less than 20 minutes later, NBC news officials would reach the same conclusion for roughly the same reasons.

"Our models told us when it was safe to call a state,'' said Allison Gollust, an NBC spokeswoman.

"It didn't matter what other people were saying,'' Ms. Gollust added. "And of course, as it turned out, we were right.''

That is not to say CBS was not tempted to make such a call. At virtually the same moment Fox's Mr. Moody gave the go-ahead, CBS informed its affiliates to stand by for a big announcement. But the network's analysts soon dashed the control room's optimism, arguing that the so-called provisional ballots that Fox had discounted in Ohio rendered Ohio a tossup.

Dan Rather, the CBS anchor, minced no words in explaining the noncall to his audience at 1:30 a.m.

"Having been embarrassed about the Florida calls in 2000, we said that we would rather be last than wrong.''

On Wednesday afternoon, Andrew Heyward, the president of CBS News, expressed no regret at the network's hesitation.

"Nobody wanted to be in a position of declaring a winner before the candidates agreed to it,'' Mr. Heyward said.

"You notice,'' he added, "that those other networks didn't project a single other state that night - they stayed stuck on 269 - because they knew what we knew: that the election was not going to be decided that night.''

For Fox News analysts, the temptation to call the election outright for Mr. Bush surfaced at 1:50 a.m., nearly a half-hour before Mr. Rove's call to Mr. Barone. A graduate student assisting Fox concluded that Mr. Bush had probably won New Mexico.

But Mr. Moody, the senior vice president, and Mr. Gorman, the pollster, urged caution, pointing to the incongruously low voter turnout and questions over the number of absentee ballots.

Mr. Gorman said on Wednesday afternoon that the pressure of potentially calling the race for the president had not influenced the decision.

"We still can't make the case for New Mexico,'' Mr. Gorman said. "It's razor thin.''

Bill Carter and Randy Kennedy contributed reporting for this article.

from the November 03, 2004 edition - http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1103/p09s02-cogn.html

Campaign's lasting effect for media

By Tim Rutten

LOS ANGELES - Whatever the election results are, there's a growing sense that this race may involve tectonic shifts in the landscape of political journalism. It's still much too early to recognize clearly, let alone chart, what the new lay of the land may be. It's important, moreover, to keep in mind that much that seems new may have as much to do with changes among the consumers of media as with the media itself.

For more than a generation, American political journalism - like most public opinion research - has organized itself around the assumption that public participation in the electoral process has been low and is generally drifting downward. The problem, as editors and producers saw it, was to get people interested. Call it the minimal interest/low turnout model.

That was then; this is now.

One consequence of the nation's deep, bitter, essentially even division is that its people have rediscovered their politics. The most recent survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 96 percent of registered voters believed this campaign is "important" and that fully 66 percent found it "interesting." As recently as June, just a third of the survey's respondents thought the campaign was worth following. More than 8 out of 10 voters said they found the race easy to follow, and 73 percent called the campaign "informative." However, their interest in the message doesn't translate into approval of the messenger.

Andrew Kohut, who directs the Pew survey, said 58 percent of voters "think that members of the news media often let their own political preferences influence their reporting." And yet, a 54 percent majority rates the media's coverage of this election as "good" or "excellent."

Television is one place where you already can see this paradoxical perception - that the media are biased, but their coverage is good - at work.

Here, the changes wrought by campaign 2004 are readily discerned: This election year marked the end of the mainstream broadcast networks' serious participation in American political journalism and the decisive rise to influence of the cable news operations.

When CBS, NBC, and ABC declined to offer serious coverage of the national political conventions, it was a clear signal that their news divisions' corporate overseers had lost the will - that is, the financial incentive - to fulfill their obligation, as federal license holders, to operate in the public interest. In fact, the networks' only notable campaign moment was another sign of decline and fall: the humiliation suffered by "60 Minutes" and CBS News anchor Dan Rather, when they rushed onto the air with an anti-Bush exposι based on patently fraudulent documents.

This year, television's electoral coverage has been dominated by cable news, in ways both distinctive and disturbing. For all intents and purposes, we now have a Republican TV news network - Fox News - and a Democratic one, CNN. According to that Pew survey, 70 percent of voters who say they get most of their election news from Fox plan to vote for President Bush, while just 21 percent intend to support Sen. John Kerry. Among voters who rely on CNN for their news, 67 percent support Senator Kerry and 26 percent say they'll back Mr. Bush.

The partisan cast of Fox's audience is a consequence of the network's business model and its on-air structure as a kind of right-wing electronic op-ed page - a 24-hour cycle on which studio chat shows are strung like beads linked by snippets of news. Fair and balanced it may not be, but cheap and opinionated it surely is.

CNN, by contrast, has pursued a brand of journalism that attempts to observe the traditional mainstream ethical attachment to balance and dispassion. Whether it can maintain that stance as its audience drifts more solidly Democratic is an open question. The logic of broadcast management in which programming decisions are so intimately directed by viewer preferences would seem to argue against it. Clearly, perceived political bias doesn't bother many people; increasingly larger shares of the audience are tuning to cable stations for news.

The specter of TV journalism divided along partisan, ideological lines is disturbing enough, but it pales alongside the implications of the most serious media controversy to erupt in the campaign's closing weeks: the abortive attempt by Sinclair Broadcasting to order all its stations to air an anti-Kerry documentary in prime time.

However influential old media - as in newspapers - may remain, and however significant new media - as in the blogosphere - may become, the majority of Americans get most of their news from local television. That's been true for more than a generation, and it's one of the reasons the Sinclair flap ignited such passions. All of the Baltimore-based broadcast company's stations are in small- and medium-size cities, places where the importance of local TV news is amplified.

As Elizabeth Jensen and other Los Angeles Times reporters have documented, the chain has grown in the face of what amounts to Federal Communications Commission indifference to its own regulatory strictures on media concentration. In several instances, Sinclair has been allowed to control two stations in the same market. It has been allowed, moreover, to compel all its stations - and remember, each is individually licensed to operate in the public interest - to air news and conservative commentary produced by the corporate headquarters.

The ability of an operation like that to focus all its resources on tipping a tight election is obvious, which is why all hell broke lose when Sinclair announced plans to air the anti-Kerry documentary. Threats of lawsuits, boycotts, and congressionally directed regulatory action followed. Sinclair backed down.

The problem is this: While what Sinclair proposed to do was, by every defensible journalistic standard, wrong and unethical, it was entitled to behave so as an assertion of its rights under the First Amendment. The First Amendment protects all speech, not just true speech or good speech or fair speech. It affords its highest protection, moreover, to political speech, which the documentary - whatever its moral or factual defects - most assuredly is.

This threat to the most fundamental of our liberties was created by the FCC's failure to defend the public's interest. Media concentration raises the stakes in any given legal controversy to a point where it virtually invites legal and governmental intrusion into the media's editorial decisions, putting the First Amendment at unconscionable risk.

There's an unlooked-for lesson from this campaign.

• Tim Rutten writes about the media for the Los Angeles Times. © Los Angeles Times.





TV journalists stick to what they know

By Hal Boedeker | Orlando
Sentinel Television Critic
Posted November 3, 2004

Television journalists set the tone early Tuesday evening and stuck to it: They would go discreetly into election night.

"We're going to err on the side of caution," CNN's Wolf Blitzer said at 6:26 p.m. "There's no rush to judgment."

He warned that reporting a winner of the presidency could take awhile. Competitors echoed the caution through the evening. They didn't want to repeat the blunders of election night in 2000, when they were famously off in projecting Florida's razor-thin finish.

"We have no intention of sugarcoating it," ABC's Peter Jennings said. "All the networks blew it four years ago."

Tom Brokaw was equally humble as he made his final election night appearance as NBC's anchor. "We're going to take our time and get it right," he said. "We've been encouraged by the forbearance of the American people."

In saying there was insufficient data to call South Carolina, CBS' Dan Rather said the network was "being very conservative as the evening goes along." But Rather was showing little restraint in delivering his down-home witticisms.

"This presidential race is hotter than the devil's anvil," he said. About the Florida contest, Rather quoted an old saying, "Politics has got so expensive, it takes a lot of money just to get beat with."

Shortly after 8 p.m., CBS' Bob Schieffer relayed a White House source's comment that Gov. Jeb Bush had called to say his brother had probably won several counties, including Orange. "They have no idea how Florida is going to come out, but they're feeling a little better at this hour," Schieffer said.

Rather found that an example of spin. He later noted that the campaigns for President Bush and Sen. John Kerry were spinning because so many polls were still open.

"Right now, only votes talk. Everything else walks, including all that spin," Rather said.

Florida commanded heavy attention because of 2000. At 8:45 p.m., NBC's Lisa Myers reported that the Bush campaign felt it had done better in the I-4 corridor. At 8:50 p.m., NBC's Brian Williams said that exit polling showed Kerry doing well among first-time voters.

The long voting lines and uncertain outcome in Ohio drew television's attention, but Florida was never far from center screen. On CNN, Bob Woodward of The Washington Post found a lot of contradictory information coming out of the Sunshine State and applauded the channel for holding off on projections.

"You all have taken a Valium cooler or something, and everyone is being careful," Woodward said. "There is good reason to be careful."

But problems still cropped up. At 9:17 p.m. on Fox News Channel, Brit Hume found "tantalizing indications" that exit polling might be off in indicating the presidential victor.

CNN's Tucker Carlson said exit polling needed to be reassessed. "It does stink," he said. "It's useless."

The ghost of 2000 was hanging over the night. ABC and CNN explained how they had improved their systems after the debacle four years ago in projecting outcomes.

"When these calls are made, everyone feels more comfortable about them," CNN's Judy Woodruff said. "This time, everybody is trying to do everything we can here at CNN to make sure that [2000] doesn't happen again."

The news organizations went at their own speeds in calling the states. There was no sense of competition on that front. They worked to be transparent in their methods. Michael Barone explained that Fox News Channel was being careful in calling a close U.S. Senate race in Kentucky.

A few networks put more showmanship into the visuals. CNN had the busiest look when it threw up many returns simultaneously on the NASDAQ wall in New York. NBC offered the most scenic backdrop with its views of flag-decorated Rockefeller Center. NBC also relied on a familiar prop when Tim Russert pulled out his pad to track the Electoral College.

ABC used its map to explain the close race and possible outcomes. In projecting Florida for Bush at about 11:40 p.m., ABC's Mark Helperin said it was important for the people of Florida to be spared a repeat of 2000.

"This is a scrambled night, and it could be a long one," NBC's Brokaw warned.

His last election night as anchor was a memorable one because of the close presidential race. It was also probably Rather's last election night in the central role at CBS. When he's gone, the election rite will lose a lot of its color.

Rather took pains with the Florida projection. "Having been burned once in Florida, you better believe that of all places, if we're going to get singed anywhere, we don't want it to be Florida this time," he said. "And I wouldn't kid anybody about that."

Hal Boedeker can be reached at 407-420-5756

 

AP
Networks Cautious With Rebuilt Exit Poll
 
November 3, 2004

By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer

NEW YORK - Burned by their blown calls in the 2000 election, television networks were determined not to make the same mistake again Wednesday and left President Bush on the brink of victory — but not quite there.
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Meanwhile, there were concerns among television executives about early exit polls that indicated John Kerry  would do much better than he appeared to be faring as actual vote counts came in.

Striking first, Fox News Channel declared President Bush had won Ohio at 12:41 a.m. EST.
Coupled with a projection of Alaska for Bush as soon as polls closed there at 1 a.m., Fox said Bush had clinched at least a tie for the presidency with 269 electoral votes.

NBC joined Fox in calling Ohio and Alaska for Bush at 1 a.m.

"This race is all but over," NBC anchor Tom Brokaw said.

But by 5 a.m., ABC, CBS, CNN and The Associated Press — four other news organizations that received the same vote count and exit poll information as NBC and Fox — had kept Ohio in the undecided camp.

Those same four news organizations declared Bush the winner in Nevada. NBC and Fox would not; by their counts, a Nevada win would have given Bush the presidency.

"Our judgment is that we will not be the arbiter," Brokaw said. "There will be no declaration from us tonight as long as the Kerry campaign is contesting in Ohio."

Shortly before 5 a.m., Brokaw acknowledged to viewers that the situation was frustrating. "It is frustrating for us as well," he said.

ABC's Terry Moran raised the possibility of a high-stakes game of chicken. He said the White House appeared irritated that none of the networks were declaring Bush the winner.

"Essentially what is holding things up is the president and his team is waiting for him to be declared the winner by us," he said.

But ABC didn't budge in not calling Ohio, even though analyst George Stephanopoulos said it was "mathematically almost impossible" for Kerry to win.

At Fox, a spokesman said most of its decision team had left the office by 4 a.m.

CNN was in limbo, painting Ohio green on its red state-blue state map. "We are being very cautious here," Judy Woodruff said.

The 2000 election night fiasco — when all of the networks twice prematurely declared a winner in Florida and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush weeks before it was settled — was clearly on their minds.

"If we hadn't gone through what we had gone through in 2000, we probably would have called Ohio for Bush," CNN's Jeff Greenfield said.

ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP disbanded their previous exit poll and vote-counting consortium, Voter News Service, after the 2000 fiasco and another failure in 2002. Two veteran polling outfits — Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research — collaborated on exit polls this year under the National Election Pool banner.

The networks also relied on the AP as their sole source for vote tabulations.

Although no major problems in the new systems were reported, the early exit polls caused concern.

When the 2004 results are completely known, the networks will look at whether this year's exit polls overestimated Democratic vote counts, said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. But he noted that the networks relied on real vote counts to make their calls in contested states.

"I think it would be premature to say that we had any substantial problems," Wheatley said.

Before polls had closed, the exit poll information that had once been available only to a privileged few was racing around the Internet. Television reporters tried, with varying degrees of success, not to reflect that information so as not to influence voters.

Those early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that Fox News Channel analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats."

And on evening news programs, some correspondents subtly telegraphed the polls. NBC's David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt."

Later on Fox, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers.

Although networks called states where there was little doubt quickly and consistently, there was little of the hyper-competitiveness often visible on election nights. Rivals waited nearly 30 minutes, for instance, to join CBS in putting Virginia and North Carolina in Bush's column.

The National Election Pool said it has made accommodations for the surge in early voting. While exit polls were taken in only three states that offered early voting in 2000, NEP has polled early voters in 13 states this year, including Florida, said Michael Mokrzycki, the AP's director of polling.

In response to what happened in 2000, NBC quarantined its experts making calls on winners and losers in a room without TV sets so they couldn't see their rivals, while Fox had four executives on its decision desk and promised not to call a state unless all four agreed. CBS said it wouldn't declare a winner or loser in any state, cautiously saying it would only "estimate" a winner.


COVERAGE

News Networks Call Election Results With Caution

Memories of 2000 give TV anchors and pundits pause before giving Florida to the president.

By Nick Anderson and Elizabeth Jensen
LA Times Staff Writers

November 3, 2004

Media historians, take note: This time around, Florida, at least, seemed easier to call.

Eager to avoid a replay of the 2000 vote-counting debacle, the TV networks promised more caution in reporting results for the race between President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry. And no battleground state offered reason for pause more than Florida, which four years ago the networks called first for Al Gore, then for Bush, then for no one, inaugurating a weeks-long ballot battle focused on the Sunshine State.

But by 8 p.m. PST Tuesday, TV pundits and anchors openly mused that Florida looked headed for the Bush column. It may have started when CNN's Judy Woodruff expressed skepticism over Democratic claims that, even though Bush had led all night as returns poured in, a small proportion of uncounted ballots could yet give Kerry the lead. "Some of us are scratching our heads, wondering where it's going to come from," she said.

About 40 minutes later, ABC formally projected Bush as the Florida winner, and some of the other networks followed suit (but not Fox News Channel, which caught flak four years ago for prematurely calling Florida for Bush in the wee hours of Nov. 8). By around 9 p.m., CNN analyst James Carville, the key strategist behind Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential victory, was writing the opening lines of the Kerry campaign's obituary. "It's time to acknowledge that the president has the superior hand right now," he told viewers.

On CBS, anchor Dan Rather cautioned that Bush still had not won the election, adding, in one of his homespun "Rather-isms," that the contest in the Ohio was "hotter than a Times Square Rolex" and alluding to the importance of votes of Cuyahoga County. By 9:30 p.m., Rather allowed that Kerry's chances were "not looking very good." "He must have Ohio to win … It is coming down to O-hi-o … If Kerry loses Ohio, he's finished, say good night."

So Ohio, at least temporarily, became the new Florida.

Earlier in the day, the race seemed every bit as tight as pundits predicted. TV networks spent much of the afternoon and early evening reassuring viewers how much more careful they would be about calling the presidential race this time around.

CNN, for example, explained that it would not predict a winner in any state in which the polls were still open, and that it would rely on data overseen by Associated Press as well as its own in-house analysts. As Woodruff said on the air around 3 p.m. PST, "We'd much rather get it right than get it first, by a long shot."

All day Tuesday, CNN featured an on-screen clock that ticked down the hours and minutes until the first polls closed in Eastern states — and, presumably, the political desk chiefs could loosen their belts and start calling winners. At one point late in the afternoon, CNN flashed a graphic with the plaintive headline: "When Will We Know?"

There was also the unmistakable sense that, while networks pledged not to reveal exit polling that trickled in throughout the afternoon, analysts were influenced by early data that showed encouraging results for Kerry.

But once the actual returns began coming — and in-studio electoral maps began lighting up with red, pro-Bush states — some balance returned.

Networks have felt increasing pressure to call early winners since 1980, when NBC used exit polls to make an early call for Ronald Reagan's landslide presidential victory. In most ensuing elections, the calls were made with reasonable accuracy and quickly forgotten.

But memories of the 2000 election debacle shadowed the networks long before they began election coverage Tuesday. All of the anchors, analysts and political directors crunching numbers behind the scenes were mindful of the cascade of erroneous projections on Florida four years ago. First, the state was called for 2000 Democratic nominee Gore at about 8 p.m. EST. Then, about two hours later, those calls were withdrawn. After 2 a.m., the networks called it for Bush and proclaimed him the winner. Shortly before 4 a.m., those projections began to fall apart as the networks confessed Florida was still too close to call and a dramatic 36-day recount ensued.

After those serial flip flops, caused by breakdowns in exit polls and glitches in reports of real returns from precincts, NBC anchor Tom Brokaw confessed: "We don't just have egg on our face — we have an omelet."

The mistaken calls, critics complained, had a tangible effect on the election. Republicans complained that early network calls for Gore depressed turnout in the western Florida Panhandle and elsewhere in the country. Democrats complained that the calls for Bush led Gore to make a premature concession in a phone call to the Republican and helped cement in the public mind the impression that Bush was president-elect when millions of people went to bed — an impression that was hard to reverse during the recount.

*

Jensen reported from New York, Anderson from Washington. Staff writers Scott Collins and Lynn Smith contributed from Los Angeles.


THE NETWORKS

Anchors Make Call: Caution Carries the Day

By ALESSANDRA STANLEY

Published: November 3, 2004,New York Times

On election night, news anchors repeated words like "caution," and "too close to call" with the neutrally pleasant expression parents don when telling their children some, but not all, of the facts of life. On CBS, where Dan Rather proudly told viewers that "I would rather be last than wrong," the most telling illustration on the electronic map was a big white splotch known as "insufficient data."

All the networks strained so hard to avoid repeating the early and flawed projections of 2000 that it was almost painful. Even though blogs and other Web sites on the Internet carried early voter survey results, the networks steered clear of even mentioning them. It was the wise, responsible thing to do (quite literally, politically correct), but it left the anchors without much to say.

Like Kremlinologists studying the Politburo lined up at the Soviet May Day parade, viewers mostly had to squint and interpret clashing images of a tired President Bush returning to the White House lawn and an ebullient John Kerry feasting on chowder and clams at the Union Oyster House in Boston, and later, around 9:30, the president inviting television cameras into his residence to capture him surrounded by friends and family, with no corresponding sign of hospitality by his Democratic opponent.

Fox News commentators cheered up after the president made his cameo appearance, but earlier they were quick to rush to conclusions, looking stunned and somber as they hinted that early voter surveys showed Mr. Kerry doing better than expected. "I've spent all day telling Republican friends of mine that exit polls are usually right," William Kristol, the editor of The Weekly Standard, told Brit Hume just before 9 p.m. "If the polls look bad, don't kid yourself." At that moment on ABC, Peter Jennings was reeling off a list of states and repeating, over and over as if taking the Fifth Amendment, "We are not prepared to make a projection."

Network caution was mocked on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" on Comedy Central. When Mr. Stewart asked Stephen Colbert, a mock political analyst, for his prediction, Mr. Colbert demurred. "I'm waiting for every vote to be counted, recounted, notarized and personally embossed."

And the less networks could say, the showier their election night sets. CNN rented the Nasdaq site in Times Square. NBC outdid the competition by calling its flamboyant tent city of sky booths and control rooms outside Rockefeller Center "Democracy Plaza," an Orwellian name that conjured Moscow's Chausse Entuziastov (Highway of the Enthusiastic). So did NBC's giant electoral map, carved into the ice of the Rockefeller skating rink and shown with aerial helicopter cameras; workers armed with spray cans painted Republican states red and Democratic ones blue - but not precipitously.

There were no daring predictions or even compelling election night features, though on "The ABC Evening News," Peter Jennings did a self-flagellating segment on how the networks goofed in 2000, including a mea culpa montage of ABC and other network bosses raising their hands before a Congressional committee like chastened tobacco industry executives.

Without much to see on the screen, it was hard not to notice the psychodramas playing out just beyond view.

On NBC, Tom Brokaw was abdicating his throne, a bit wistfully, to the slick, shiny Brian Williams. And his retirement was mourned on the show. "Can I just say Tom, Tom, Tom," Senator John McCain said. "Could I just say on behalf of millions who watched you for so many campaigns, thanks for the memories.''

Mr. Brokaw and NBC's top political analyst, Tim Russert, sat cozily together at an anchor desk, with Mr. Russert scratching numbers on a lap-sized electronic board with red and blue markers - a reprise of the memorable moment late in 2000 when he pulled out a grease board and scrawled a dozen undecided states and their electoral votes, to show how conceivable it was for the nation to have a deadlocked electoral college.

Mr. Williams was instead isolated on a separate set, surrounded by high-tech maps and flashing electronic boards. It may have been meant to look like an anchorman bullpen where the rookie warms up, but it mostly looked as if Mr. Williams was an annoying cousin relegated to the children's table at Thanksgiving.

Mr. Jennings, weary after many hours of anchoring his network's digital news station, "ABC News Now," at times got almost giddy. Saying he was going to be "a little bit naughty," he had his staff highlight Florida bright yellow to demonstrate what Mr. Kerry would need to win if Florida went for Mr. Bush. "We are not calling it," he warned, as if worried viewers would mistake yellow for red.

Dan Rather, who so famously misspoke in 2000 ("If we say somebody's carried the state, you can take that to the bank. Book it!") mostly seemed at war with himself. He kept undermining somber restraint with his trademark over-the-top metaphors. At one point, he made a strained pop culture reference: "We may need Billy Crystal to 'Analyze This' before it's all over." At another, he exclaimed, "It don't mean a thing if they don't get those swing states."

And that was the boldest prediction of the night.




Television networks proceed cautiously with rebuilt exit polling system

- DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer
Wednesday, November 3, 2004

(11-03) 02:35 PST NEW YORK (AP) --

Burned by their blown calls in the 2000 election, television networks were determined not to make the same mistake again Wednesday and left President Bush on the brink of victory -- but not quite there.

Meanwhile, there were concerns among television executives about early exit polls that indicated John Kerry would do much better than he appeared to be faring as actual vote counts came in.

Striking first, Fox News Channel declared President Bush had won Ohio at 12:41 a.m. EST. Coupled with a projection of Alaska for Bush as soon as polls closed there at 1 a.m., Fox said Bush had clinched at least a tie for the presidency with 269 electoral votes.

NBC joined Fox in calling Ohio and Alaska for Bush at 1 a.m.

"This race is all but over," NBC anchor Tom Brokaw said.

But by 5 a.m., ABC, CBS, CNN and The Associated Press -- four other news organizations that received the same vote count and exit poll information as NBC and Fox -- had kept Ohio in the undecided camp.

Those same four news organizations declared Bush the winner in Nevada. NBC and Fox would not; by their counts, a Nevada win would have given Bush the presidency.

"Our judgment is that we will not be the arbiter," Brokaw said. "There will be no declaration from us tonight as long as the Kerry campaign is contesting in Ohio."

Shortly before 5 a.m., Brokaw acknowledged to viewers that the situation was frustrating. "It is frustrating for us as well," he said.

ABC's Terry Moran raised the possibility of a high-stakes game of chicken. He said the White House appeared irritated that none of the networks were declaring Bush the winner.

"Essentially what is holding things up is the president and his team is waiting for him to be declared the winner by us," he said.

But ABC didn't budge in not calling Ohio, even though analyst George Stephanopoulos said it was "mathematically almost impossible" for Kerry to win.

At Fox, a spokesman said most of its decision team had left the office by 4 a.m.

CNN was in limbo, painting Ohio green on its red state-blue state map. "We are being very cautious here," Judy Woodruff said.

The 2000 election night fiasco -- when all of the networks twice prematurely declared a winner in Florida and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush weeks before it was settled -- was clearly on their minds.

"If we hadn't gone through what we had gone through in 2000, we probably would have called Ohio for Bush," CNN's Jeff Greenfield said.

ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP disbanded their previous exit poll and vote-counting consortium, Voter News Service, after the 2000 fiasco and another failure in 2002. Two veteran polling outfits -- Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research -- collaborated on exit polls this year under the National Election Pool banner.

The networks also relied on the AP as their sole source for vote tabulations.

Although no major problems in the new systems were reported, the early exit polls caused concern.

When the 2004 results are completely known, the networks will look at whether this year's exit polls overestimated Democratic vote counts, said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. But he noted that the networks relied on real vote counts to make their calls in contested states.

"I think it would be premature to say that we had any substantial problems," Wheatley said.

Before polls had closed, the exit poll information that had once been available only to a privileged few was racing around the Internet. Television reporters tried, with varying degrees of success, not to reflect that information so as not to influence voters.

Those early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that Fox News Channel analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats."

And on evening news programs, some correspondents subtly telegraphed the polls. NBC's David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt."

Later on Fox, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers.

Although networks called states where there was little doubt quickly and consistently, there was little of the hyper-competitiveness often visible on election nights. Rivals waited nearly 30 minutes, for instance, to join CBS in putting Virginia and North Carolina in Bush's column.

The National Election Pool said it has made accommodations for the surge in early voting. While exit polls were taken in only three states that offered early voting in 2000, NEP has polled early voters in 13 states this year, including Florida, said Michael Mokrzycki, the AP's director of polling.

In response to what happened in 2000, NBC quarantined its experts making calls on winners and losers in a room without TV sets so they couldn't see their rivals, while Fox had four executives on its decision desk and promised not to call a state unless all four agreed. CBS said it wouldn't declare a winner or loser in any state, cautiously saying it would only "estimate" a winner.


URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/11/03/politics0412EST0625.DTL



Networks get it right
New York Daily News

 

Peter Jennings
"You know how people say, 'Blue is the new black?' " asked CNN's Jeff Greenfield very early into last night's presidential election coverage. "Ohio, a lot of people think, is the new Florida."

Talk about nailing it.

Four years ago, the fiasco over the close Florida vote count had the networks reversing themselves, and vowing to be more cautious this time around.

So what happened last night?

Long after midnight, after Pennsylvania had been credited to John Kerry and Florida to George W. Bush, Fox News jumped its rivals by calling Ohio - and in essence, the election - for Bush.

This happened even as, on CBS in the minutes leading to 1 a.m., Dan Rather was telling viewers, "Nobody knows how the Buckeye State is going."

But at 1 a.m., MSNBC and NBC gave the state to Bush, with Chris Matthews promising, "There'll be no reversals tonight."

Until that point, CBS had been the most aggressive network for most of the night, held back as did ABC.

While CBS and ABC were being cautious at the end, with ABC's Peter Jennings batting back an interviewee's observation that Fox News already had given Ohio to Bush (ABC had yet to do so, Jennings informed him), Matthews was asking questions about concession speeches.

The dominos fell late, and at different times around the dial. But last night, compared with 2000, they appeared to be falling in plain sight - unless Ohio really was the new Florida, and there is a reversal further down the road.

Absent that, here's how the night's coverage played out:

The predictions: "The watchword is caution," Judy Woodruff said on CNN last night, before the first polls closed. "We would much rather get it right than get it first, by a long shot."

Yet a few hours later, at 8:18 p.m., the various TV news organizations posted results that were far from uniform. For example, MSNBC and CNN concurred that Kerry had 77 electoral votes at that point, and Bush 66. ABC also gave Bush 66, but gave Kerry only 74.

The setup: Every network was good here. Whether it was Tim Russert's handheld map on NBC or Dan Rather's "Big 3, Medium 3 and Little 3" state countdown, everyone discussed the key battles clearly.

The settings: NBC and MSNBC shared Democracy Plaza, but not to great effect; even the ice-rink map was not impressive when it was used. CNN had the busiest set of background screens.

The high-tech gimmicks: CBS' John Roberts touched his screen and dragged his national maps around like Tom Cruise in "Minority Report." MSNBC and NBC made good use of its county-by-county map, and CNN's Wolf Blitzer, at the top of each hour, used his network's giant shifting screens well to update the electoral count.

The players: On the commercial broadcast networks, Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert presided at NBC, Dan Rather at CBS, Jim Lehrer at PBS, and Peter Jennings and George Stephanopoulos at ABC. Across the dial, most of the same key players from 2000 stepped up and provided the best stuff again: Jeff Greenfield and Judy Woodruff at CNN, Chris Matthews at MSNBC, Russert, Stephanopoulos, ABC's Mark Halperin - these were the position players who were, as always, worth listening to. Martha MacCallum, at Fox News, was succinct and informative in summarizing the various Senate and House races.

And Rather, as always, was eminently quotable.

"If they can do what they do," Rather told viewers, speaking about soldiers serving in Iraq, "you can get off your duff and vote."

Originally published on November 3, 2004

Declarations held back until trends were clear

By Robert P. Laurence
SAN DIEGO
UNION-TRIBUNE TELEVISION CRITIC

November 3, 2004


LUCIAN M. READ /
New York Times News Service
U.S. Marines at Camp Abu Ghraib, outside Fallujah in Iraq, watched election returns early today on CNN.
Careful, careful, careful.

Chastened by the memory of hasty and often inaccurate calls made in 2000, TV's broadcast networks and cable news channels played it cautious last night, holding back on their state by state pronouncements until trends were clear.

CNN, in fact, waited until 98 percent of the popular vote was in before calling Florida for President Bush.

Throughout most of the evening, the results were the same as they were in 2000. From network to network, anchors kept repeating the mantra as if reading from a single script.

"At 13 minutes past 12 o'clock (EST)," anchor Brit Hume at Fox News said, "not a single blue state has turned red, not a single red state has turned blue."

"No presidential turnovers so far," said Dan Rather on CBS.

When New Hampshire went to Kerry, it was the first state to switch from Bush's 2000 win column.

Cable's Fox News Channel, often criticized for a perceived rightward leaning in its political coverage, was remarkably restrained. Long after most of its competitors had placed Florida in Bush's column, Hume was saying, "We believe at this desk that Bush is likely to carry Florida. But out of an abundance of caution, we're not calling it."

As the night wore on, Ohio was the subject of prediction controversy.

"We've not projected Ohio," ABC's Peter Jennings cautioned Dean Reynolds, covering the Kerry campaign. "No," said Reynolds, "but everybody else has."

CNN also held back, and later on Judy Woodruff said broken vote-counting machines, uncounted absentee ballots and plain old fatigue among election officials also would delay the Iowa totals until today. At least.

 

SHANNON STAPLETON / Reuters
Early election returns by CNN were projected in New York's Times Square yesterday.
For San Diego voters, the election story got really interesting as write-in mayoral candidate Donna Frye opened up a lead over Mayor Dick Murphy and County Supervisor Ron Roberts. Marty Levin of KNSD/Channel 39, most reliable of local anchors, remarked that San Diego's "downtown establishment was not crazy about the idea of Donna Frye."

In the presidential race, electoral vote estimates by the networks varied wildly. Within the same hour, Bush's totals ranged from 207 by CNN to 246 by CBS.

Expectations likewise veered through the evening, as early exit polls favored Kerry and then the vote counts swung toward the president.

In the afternoon, with long lines of voters seen in TV pictures from all over the country, CNN's conservative Tucker Carlson was asking: "If people are standing outside for three hours to vote, you've got to ask yourself, 'Are they really Republicans?' "

Over on PBS, David Brooks was calling it "a Jon Stewart election," referring to the wisecracking host of "The Daily Show" on Comedy Central. "If a lot of people who watch Jon Stewart turn out, it'll be good for John Kerry. Culturally, George Bush doesn't strike younger voters."

But before long, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough took satisfaction in exit polls showing that young voters hadn't in fact shown up, despite many predictions that they'd vote in record numbers: "The youth leave you at the altar every time."

The networks were conservative in their calls but not in visual showmanship. NBC drew a map of the states on the ice skating rink in New York's Rockefeller Plaza and renamed it "Democracy Plaza." On CNN, anchor Wolf Blitzer strolled back and forth in front of a projection screen that seemed to stretch for 50 feet or more. On CBS, John Roberts stood in front of an interactive touch screen where he dragged various state maps back and forth with a motion of his index finger.

Through it all, PBS was an island of calm and reasoned perspective, where the commentators spoke without shouting and without the interruption blunderbuss graphics and sound effects.