TV journalists stick to what they know By Hal Boedeker | Orlando Sentinel Television Critic Posted November 3, 2004
Television journalists set the tone early
Tuesday evening and stuck to it: They would go discreetly into
election night.
"We're going to err on the side of caution," CNN's Wolf Blitzer said at 6:26 p.m. "There's no rush to judgment." He warned that reporting a winner of the presidency could take awhile. Competitors echoed the caution through the evening. They didn't want to repeat the blunders of election night in 2000, when they were famously off in projecting Florida's razor-thin finish. "We have no intention of sugarcoating it," ABC's Peter Jennings said. "All the networks blew it four years ago." Tom Brokaw was equally humble as he made his final election night appearance as NBC's anchor. "We're going to take our time and get it right," he said. "We've been encouraged by the forbearance of the American people." In saying there was insufficient data to call South Carolina, CBS' Dan Rather said the network was "being very conservative as the evening goes along." But Rather was showing little restraint in delivering his down-home witticisms. "This presidential race is hotter than the devil's anvil," he said. About the Florida contest, Rather quoted an old saying, "Politics has got so expensive, it takes a lot of money just to get beat with." Shortly after 8 p.m., CBS' Bob Schieffer relayed a White House source's comment that Gov. Jeb Bush had called to say his brother had probably won several counties, including Orange. "They have no idea how Florida is going to come out, but they're feeling a little better at this hour," Schieffer said. Rather found that an example of spin. He later noted that the campaigns for President Bush and Sen. John Kerry were spinning because so many polls were still open. "Right now, only votes talk. Everything else walks, including all that spin," Rather said. Florida commanded heavy attention because of 2000. At 8:45 p.m., NBC's Lisa Myers reported that the Bush campaign felt it had done better in the I-4 corridor. At 8:50 p.m., NBC's Brian Williams said that exit polling showed Kerry doing well among first-time voters. The long voting lines and uncertain outcome in Ohio drew television's attention, but Florida was never far from center screen. On CNN, Bob Woodward of The Washington Post found a lot of contradictory information coming out of the Sunshine State and applauded the channel for holding off on projections. "You all have taken a Valium cooler or something, and everyone is being careful," Woodward said. "There is good reason to be careful." But problems still cropped up. At 9:17 p.m. on Fox News Channel, Brit Hume found "tantalizing indications" that exit polling might be off in indicating the presidential victor. CNN's Tucker Carlson said exit polling needed to be reassessed. "It does stink," he said. "It's useless." The ghost of 2000 was hanging over the night. ABC and CNN explained how they had improved their systems after the debacle four years ago in projecting outcomes. "When these calls are made, everyone feels more comfortable about them," CNN's Judy Woodruff said. "This time, everybody is trying to do everything we can here at CNN to make sure that [2000] doesn't happen again." The news organizations went at their own speeds in calling the states. There was no sense of competition on that front. They worked to be transparent in their methods. Michael Barone explained that Fox News Channel was being careful in calling a close U.S. Senate race in Kentucky. A few networks put more showmanship into the visuals. CNN had the busiest look when it threw up many returns simultaneously on the NASDAQ wall in New York. NBC offered the most scenic backdrop with its views of flag-decorated Rockefeller Center. NBC also relied on a familiar prop when Tim Russert pulled out his pad to track the Electoral College. ABC used its map to explain the close race and possible outcomes. In projecting Florida for Bush at about 11:40 p.m., ABC's Mark Helperin said it was important for the people of Florida to be spared a repeat of 2000. "This is a scrambled night, and it could be a long one," NBC's Brokaw warned. His last election night as anchor was a memorable one because of the close presidential race. It was also probably Rather's last election night in the central role at CBS. When he's gone, the election rite will lose a lot of its color. Rather took pains with the Florida projection. "Having been burned once in Florida, you better believe that of all places, if we're going to get singed anywhere, we don't want it to be Florida this time," he said. "And I wouldn't kid anybody about that." Hal Boedeker can be reached at 407-420-5756
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Networks Cautious With Rebuilt Exit Poll
By DAVID BAUDER, AP Television Writer NEW YORK - Burned by their blown calls in the 2000 election, television networks were determined not to make the same mistake again Wednesday and left President Bush on the brink of victory but not quite there.
Meanwhile, there were concerns among
television executives about early exit polls that indicated John
Kerry would do much better than he appeared to be faring as actual
vote counts came in. "This race is all but over," NBC anchor Tom Brokaw said. But by 5 a.m., ABC, CBS, CNN and The Associated Press four other news organizations that received the same vote count and exit poll information as NBC and Fox had kept Ohio in the undecided camp. Those same four news organizations declared Bush the winner in Nevada. NBC and Fox would not; by their counts, a Nevada win would have given Bush the presidency. "Our judgment is that we will not be the arbiter," Brokaw said. "There will be no declaration from us tonight as long as the Kerry campaign is contesting in Ohio." Shortly before 5 a.m., Brokaw acknowledged to viewers that the situation was frustrating. "It is frustrating for us as well," he said. ABC's Terry Moran raised the possibility of a high-stakes game of chicken. He said the White House appeared irritated that none of the networks were declaring Bush the winner. "Essentially what is holding things up is the president and his team is waiting for him to be declared the winner by us," he said. But ABC didn't budge in not calling Ohio, even though analyst George Stephanopoulos said it was "mathematically almost impossible" for Kerry to win. At Fox, a spokesman said most of its decision team had left the office by 4 a.m. CNN was in limbo, painting Ohio green on its red state-blue state map. "We are being very cautious here," Judy Woodruff said. The 2000 election night fiasco when
all of the networks twice prematurely declared a winner in Florida and
awarded the presidency to George W. Bush weeks before it was settled
was clearly on their minds. The networks also relied on the AP as their sole source for vote tabulations. Although no major problems in the new systems were reported, the early exit polls caused concern. When the 2004 results are completely known, the networks will look at whether this year's exit polls overestimated Democratic vote counts, said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. But he noted that the networks relied on real vote counts to make their calls in contested states. "I think it would be premature to say that we had any substantial problems," Wheatley said. Before polls had closed, the exit poll information that had once been available only to a privileged few was racing around the Internet. Television reporters tried, with varying degrees of success, not to reflect that information so as not to influence voters. Those early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that Fox News Channel analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats." And on evening news programs, some correspondents subtly telegraphed the polls. NBC's David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt." Later on Fox, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers. Although networks called states where there was little doubt quickly and consistently, there was little of the hyper-competitiveness often visible on election nights. Rivals waited nearly 30 minutes, for instance, to join CBS in putting Virginia and North Carolina in Bush's column. The National Election Pool said it has made accommodations for the surge in early voting. While exit polls were taken in only three states that offered early voting in 2000, NEP has polled early voters in 13 states this year, including Florida, said Michael Mokrzycki, the AP's director of polling. In response to what happened in 2000, NBC quarantined its experts making calls on winners and losers in a room without TV sets so they couldn't see their rivals, while Fox had four executives on its decision desk and promised not to call a state unless all four agreed. CBS said it wouldn't declare a winner or loser in any state, cautiously saying it would only "estimate" a winner. |
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On election night, news anchors repeated words like "caution," and "too close to call" with the neutrally pleasant expression parents don when telling their children some, but not all, of the facts of life. On CBS, where Dan Rather proudly told viewers that "I would rather be last than wrong," the most telling illustration on the electronic map was a big white splotch known as "insufficient data."
All the networks strained so hard to avoid repeating the early and flawed projections of 2000 that it was almost painful. Even though blogs and other Web sites on the Internet carried early voter survey results, the networks steered clear of even mentioning them. It was the wise, responsible thing to do (quite literally, politically correct), but it left the anchors without much to say.
Like Kremlinologists studying the Politburo lined up at the Soviet May Day parade, viewers mostly had to squint and interpret clashing images of a tired President Bush returning to the White House lawn and an ebullient John Kerry feasting on chowder and clams at the Union Oyster House in Boston, and later, around 9:30, the president inviting television cameras into his residence to capture him surrounded by friends and family, with no corresponding sign of hospitality by his Democratic opponent.
Fox News commentators cheered up after the president made his cameo appearance, but earlier they were quick to rush to conclusions, looking stunned and somber as they hinted that early voter surveys showed Mr. Kerry doing better than expected. "I've spent all day telling Republican friends of mine that exit polls are usually right," William Kristol, the editor of The Weekly Standard, told Brit Hume just before 9 p.m. "If the polls look bad, don't kid yourself." At that moment on ABC, Peter Jennings was reeling off a list of states and repeating, over and over as if taking the Fifth Amendment, "We are not prepared to make a projection."
Network caution was mocked on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" on Comedy Central. When Mr. Stewart asked Stephen Colbert, a mock political analyst, for his prediction, Mr. Colbert demurred. "I'm waiting for every vote to be counted, recounted, notarized and personally embossed."
And the less networks could say, the showier their election night sets. CNN rented the Nasdaq site in Times Square. NBC outdid the competition by calling its flamboyant tent city of sky booths and control rooms outside Rockefeller Center "Democracy Plaza," an Orwellian name that conjured Moscow's Chausse Entuziastov (Highway of the Enthusiastic). So did NBC's giant electoral map, carved into the ice of the Rockefeller skating rink and shown with aerial helicopter cameras; workers armed with spray cans painted Republican states red and Democratic ones blue - but not precipitously.
There were no daring predictions or even compelling election night features, though on "The ABC Evening News," Peter Jennings did a self-flagellating segment on how the networks goofed in 2000, including a mea culpa montage of ABC and other network bosses raising their hands before a Congressional committee like chastened tobacco industry executives.
Without much to see on the screen, it was hard not to notice the psychodramas playing out just beyond view.
On NBC, Tom Brokaw was abdicating his throne, a bit wistfully, to the slick, shiny Brian Williams. And his retirement was mourned on the show. "Can I just say Tom, Tom, Tom," Senator John McCain said. "Could I just say on behalf of millions who watched you for so many campaigns, thanks for the memories.''
Mr. Brokaw and NBC's top political analyst, Tim Russert, sat cozily together at an anchor desk, with Mr. Russert scratching numbers on a lap-sized electronic board with red and blue markers - a reprise of the memorable moment late in 2000 when he pulled out a grease board and scrawled a dozen undecided states and their electoral votes, to show how conceivable it was for the nation to have a deadlocked electoral college.
Mr. Williams was instead isolated on a separate set, surrounded by high-tech maps and flashing electronic boards. It may have been meant to look like an anchorman bullpen where the rookie warms up, but it mostly looked as if Mr. Williams was an annoying cousin relegated to the children's table at Thanksgiving.
Mr. Jennings, weary after many hours of anchoring his network's digital news station, "ABC News Now," at times got almost giddy. Saying he was going to be "a little bit naughty," he had his staff highlight Florida bright yellow to demonstrate what Mr. Kerry would need to win if Florida went for Mr. Bush. "We are not calling it," he warned, as if worried viewers would mistake yellow for red.
Dan Rather, who so famously misspoke in 2000 ("If we say somebody's carried the state, you can take that to the bank. Book it!") mostly seemed at war with himself. He kept undermining somber restraint with his trademark over-the-top metaphors. At one point, he made a strained pop culture reference: "We may need Billy Crystal to 'Analyze This' before it's all over." At another, he exclaimed, "It don't mean a thing if they don't get those swing states."
And that was the boldest prediction of the night.
(11-03) 02:35 PST NEW YORK (AP) --
Burned by their blown calls in the 2000 election, television networks were determined not to make the same mistake again Wednesday and left President Bush on the brink of victory -- but not quite there.
Meanwhile, there were concerns among television executives about early exit polls that indicated John Kerry would do much better than he appeared to be faring as actual vote counts came in.
Striking first, Fox News Channel declared President Bush had won Ohio at 12:41 a.m. EST. Coupled with a projection of Alaska for Bush as soon as polls closed there at 1 a.m., Fox said Bush had clinched at least a tie for the presidency with 269 electoral votes.
NBC joined Fox in calling Ohio and Alaska for Bush at 1 a.m.
"This race is all but over," NBC anchor Tom Brokaw said.
But by 5 a.m., ABC, CBS, CNN and The Associated Press -- four other news organizations that received the same vote count and exit poll information as NBC and Fox -- had kept Ohio in the undecided camp.
Those same four news organizations declared Bush the winner in Nevada. NBC and Fox would not; by their counts, a Nevada win would have given Bush the presidency.
"Our judgment is that we will not be the arbiter," Brokaw said. "There will be no declaration from us tonight as long as the Kerry campaign is contesting in Ohio."
Shortly before 5 a.m., Brokaw acknowledged to viewers that the situation was frustrating. "It is frustrating for us as well," he said.
ABC's Terry Moran raised the possibility of a high-stakes game of chicken. He said the White House appeared irritated that none of the networks were declaring Bush the winner.
"Essentially what is holding things up is the president and his team is waiting for him to be declared the winner by us," he said.
But ABC didn't budge in not calling Ohio, even though analyst George Stephanopoulos said it was "mathematically almost impossible" for Kerry to win.
At Fox, a spokesman said most of its decision team had left the office by 4 a.m.
CNN was in limbo, painting Ohio green on its red state-blue state map. "We are being very cautious here," Judy Woodruff said.
The 2000 election night fiasco -- when all of the networks twice prematurely declared a winner in Florida and awarded the presidency to George W. Bush weeks before it was settled -- was clearly on their minds.
"If we hadn't gone through what we had gone through in 2000, we probably would have called Ohio for Bush," CNN's Jeff Greenfield said.
ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox and the AP disbanded their previous exit poll and vote-counting consortium, Voter News Service, after the 2000 fiasco and another failure in 2002. Two veteran polling outfits -- Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research -- collaborated on exit polls this year under the National Election Pool banner.
The networks also relied on the AP as their sole source for vote tabulations.
Although no major problems in the new systems were reported, the early exit polls caused concern.
When the 2004 results are completely known, the networks will look at whether this year's exit polls overestimated Democratic vote counts, said Bill Wheatley, NBC News vice president. But he noted that the networks relied on real vote counts to make their calls in contested states.
"I think it would be premature to say that we had any substantial problems," Wheatley said.
Before polls had closed, the exit poll information that had once been available only to a privileged few was racing around the Internet. Television reporters tried, with varying degrees of success, not to reflect that information so as not to influence voters.
Those early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that Fox News Channel analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats."
And on evening news programs, some correspondents subtly telegraphed the polls. NBC's David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt."
Later on Fox, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers.
Although networks called states where there was little doubt quickly and consistently, there was little of the hyper-competitiveness often visible on election nights. Rivals waited nearly 30 minutes, for instance, to join CBS in putting Virginia and North Carolina in Bush's column.
The National Election Pool said it has made accommodations for the surge in early voting. While exit polls were taken in only three states that offered early voting in 2000, NEP has polled early voters in 13 states this year, including Florida, said Michael Mokrzycki, the AP's director of polling.
In response to what happened in 2000, NBC quarantined its experts making calls on winners and losers in a room without TV sets so they couldn't see their rivals, while Fox had four executives on its decision desk and promised not to call a state unless all four agreed. CBS said it wouldn't declare a winner or loser in any state, cautiously saying it would only "estimate" a winner.
URL: http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2004/11/03/politics0412EST0625.DTL
| Networks get it right New York Daily News
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Talk about nailing it. Four years ago, the fiasco over the close Florida vote count had the networks reversing themselves, and vowing to be more cautious this time around. So what happened last night? Long after midnight, after Pennsylvania had been credited to John Kerry and Florida to George W. Bush, Fox News jumped its rivals by calling Ohio - and in essence, the election - for Bush. This happened even as, on CBS in the minutes leading to 1 a.m., Dan Rather was telling viewers, "Nobody knows how the Buckeye State is going." But at 1 a.m., MSNBC and NBC gave the state to Bush, with Chris Matthews promising, "There'll be no reversals tonight." Until that point, CBS had been the most aggressive network for most of the night, held back as did ABC. While CBS and ABC were being cautious at the end, with ABC's Peter Jennings batting back an interviewee's observation that Fox News already had given Ohio to Bush (ABC had yet to do so, Jennings informed him), Matthews was asking questions about concession speeches. The dominos fell late, and at different times around the dial. But last night, compared with 2000, they appeared to be falling in plain sight - unless Ohio really was the new Florida, and there is a reversal further down the road. Absent that, here's how the night's coverage played out: The predictions: "The watchword is caution," Judy Woodruff said on CNN last night, before the first polls closed. "We would much rather get it right than get it first, by a long shot." Yet a few hours later, at 8:18 p.m., the various TV news organizations posted results that were far from uniform. For example, MSNBC and CNN concurred that Kerry had 77 electoral votes at that point, and Bush 66. ABC also gave Bush 66, but gave Kerry only 74. The setup: Every network was good here. Whether it was Tim Russert's handheld map on NBC or Dan Rather's "Big 3, Medium 3 and Little 3" state countdown, everyone discussed the key battles clearly. The settings: NBC and MSNBC shared Democracy Plaza, but not to great effect; even the ice-rink map was not impressive when it was used. CNN had the busiest set of background screens. The high-tech gimmicks: CBS' John Roberts touched his screen and dragged his national maps around like Tom Cruise in "Minority Report." MSNBC and NBC made good use of its county-by-county map, and CNN's Wolf Blitzer, at the top of each hour, used his network's giant shifting screens well to update the electoral count. The players: On the commercial broadcast networks, Tom Brokaw and Tim Russert presided at NBC, Dan Rather at CBS, Jim Lehrer at PBS, and Peter Jennings and George Stephanopoulos at ABC. Across the dial, most of the same key players from 2000 stepped up and provided the best stuff again: Jeff Greenfield and Judy Woodruff at CNN, Chris Matthews at MSNBC, Russert, Stephanopoulos, ABC's Mark Halperin - these were the position players who were, as always, worth listening to. Martha MacCallum, at Fox News, was succinct and informative in summarizing the various Senate and House races. And Rather, as always, was eminently quotable. "If they can do what they do," Rather told
viewers, speaking about soldiers serving in Iraq, "you can get off
your duff and vote." |
November 3, 2004
Chastened by the memory of hasty and often inaccurate
calls made in 2000, TV's broadcast networks and cable news channels played it
cautious last night, holding back on their state by state pronouncements until
trends were clear.
CNN, in fact, waited until 98 percent of the popular vote
was in before calling Florida for President Bush.
Throughout most of the evening, the results were the same
as they were in 2000. From network to network, anchors kept repeating the mantra
as if reading from a single script.
"At 13 minutes past 12 o'clock (EST)," anchor
Brit Hume at Fox News said, "not a single blue state has turned red, not a
single red state has turned blue."
"No presidential turnovers so far," said Dan
Rather on CBS.
When New Hampshire went to Kerry, it was the first state
to switch from Bush's 2000 win column.
Cable's Fox News Channel, often criticized for a perceived
rightward leaning in its political coverage, was remarkably restrained. Long
after most of its competitors had placed Florida in Bush's column, Hume was
saying, "We believe at this desk that Bush is likely to carry Florida. But
out of an abundance of caution, we're not calling it."
As the night wore on, Ohio was the subject of prediction
controversy.
"We've not projected Ohio," ABC's Peter Jennings
cautioned Dean Reynolds, covering the Kerry campaign. "No," said
Reynolds, "but everybody else has."
CNN also held back, and later on Judy Woodruff said broken
vote-counting machines, uncounted absentee ballots and plain old fatigue among
election officials also would delay the Iowa totals until today. At least.
In the presidential race, electoral vote estimates by the
networks varied wildly. Within the same hour, Bush's totals ranged from 207 by
CNN to 246 by CBS.
Expectations likewise veered through the evening, as early
exit polls favored Kerry and then the vote counts swung toward the president.
In the afternoon, with long lines of voters seen in TV
pictures from all over the country, CNN's conservative Tucker Carlson was
asking: "If people are standing outside for three hours to vote, you've got
to ask yourself, 'Are they really Republicans?' "
Over on PBS, David Brooks was calling it "a Jon
Stewart election," referring to the wisecracking host of "The Daily
Show" on Comedy Central. "If a lot of people who watch Jon Stewart
turn out, it'll be good for John Kerry. Culturally, George Bush doesn't strike
younger voters."
But before long, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough took satisfaction
in exit polls showing that young voters hadn't in fact shown up, despite many
predictions that they'd vote in record numbers: "The youth leave you at the
altar every time."
The networks were conservative in their calls but not in
visual showmanship. NBC drew a map of the states on the ice skating rink in New
York's Rockefeller Plaza and renamed it "Democracy Plaza." On CNN,
anchor Wolf Blitzer strolled back and forth in front of a projection screen that
seemed to stretch for 50 feet or more. On CBS, John Roberts stood in front of an
interactive touch screen where he dragged various state maps back and forth with
a motion of his index finger.
Through it all, PBS was an island of calm and reasoned
perspective, where the commentators spoke without shouting and without the
interruption blunderbuss graphics and sound effects.
Careful, careful, careful.

New York Times News Service
For San Diego voters, the election story got really
interesting as write-in mayoral candidate Donna Frye opened up a lead over Mayor
Dick Murphy and County Supervisor Ron Roberts. Marty Levin of KNSD/Channel 39,
most reliable of local anchors, remarked that San Diego's "downtown
establishment was not crazy about the idea of Donna Frye."
