As campaign season kicks into high gear, television-advertising spending is on track to possibly break the 2002 record. But unlike previous midterm election years, candidates are devoting more money than ever to cable TV in an effort to target voters more precisely.

Though most political ad dollars traditionally are spent after Labor Day, tight primaries and early spending on House, Senate and gubernatorial races have pushed local TV-ad spending above $311 million as of mid-August, up 45% from the same point in 2004 and more than three times as much as in 2002, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, a division of TNS Media Intelligence, which tracks political ad spending. All political ad buys by mid-year, including issue ads, ballot initiatives and other issues, have pushed spending above $700 million nationally, the firm says.

About 85% of that spending still is expected to go to local broadcast television stations, but cable operators say they are tracking well ahead of expectations and look forward to a particularly lucrative midterm election this time, thanks to a growing acceptance of cable by political ad buyers and a desire of candidates to better target their messages.

The heavy spending in part reflects the view of both parties that the stakes are high this year. Control of Congress is in play, with Democrats hoping to pick up the House and at least a few Senate seats. Incumbents in both parties are fighting uneasiness, as reflected in many polls, that the country is heading in the wrong direction. There also are competitive gubernatorial races in big states with expensive media markets, including California, Michigan and Florida.

Meanwhile, candidates are unusually flush with cash, thanks to aggressive fund-raising efforts. By the end of July, the Republican National Committee had raised a total of $176 million this election cycle, compared to the Democrats' $95 million, according to PoliticalMoneyLine, which tracks political contributions. But Democrats are closer than usual to matching Republican fund-raising totals this year, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has even surpassed its rival by $12 million, with $77 million total raised. Special-interest groups are also expected to spend heavily in certain races this fall.

When it comes to cable spending, industry executives credit President Bush's embrace of national cable ads in his 2004 re-election campaign for the burgeoning interest of other candidates now.

"With cable and radio, you can more precisely target a segment than broadcast television. The audience is more fragmented in cable and radio. You can pick out the fragments you want," says Will Feltus, senior vice president for research and planning at National Media, a Washington firm that bought ads for President Bush's 2004 campaign.

National Cable Communications, a spot cable-ad firm jointly owned by Comcast Corp., Cox Communications and Time Warner Cable, estimates about $200 million will be spent on local and national cable spots this cycle.

Cable stations carried ads in practically every major statewide primary across the country this year, says Chuck Cowdrey, vice president of political strategy for the firm. "We never participated in primaries before," Mr. Cowdrey says. "I think we would have eventually gotten there, but it would have moved more slowly. (The Bush campaign ad buys) had that kind of impact."

As of last week, "we're tracking 70% ahead of where we were in 2004," says Ed Dunbar, vice president of corporate integration at Comcast's Spotlight national advertising-sales division. "The television audience is not as monolithic on the broadcast side as it once was and there's recognition of that."

The Bush team originally turned to cable largely for practical reasons: Its demographic data showed Republicans tend to watch more cable programming, while Democrats tend to watch more broadcast television. Spending about $20 million for national spots on networks including Outdoor Life Network and the Golf Channel allowed the Bush campaign to capture the attention of its base, even in states where it wasn't otherwise spending much money, like Hawaii and Texas.

Consequently, some statewide candidates, such as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, have been on the air for months -- on both broadcast TV and cable -- with ads aimed at redefining the race and getting a head start on the competition. Not coincidentally, Mr. Schwarzenegger's team includes several of the main architects behind Mr. Bush's re-election campaign, including ad guru Alex Castellanos, pollster and strategist Matthew Dowd and campaign manager Steve Schmidt, who did rapid response for Mr. Bush's campaign.

The governor spent more than $16 million during the first half of the year and more than $7 million of that total was spent on television ads, campaign finance records show. Democrat Phil Angelides has spent $21 million on television ads during the first half of the year, but much of that effort was spent in a nasty gubernatorial primary battle, which he won by just 4% in June.

The growing interest isn't based on more viewers watching cable at the expense of broadcast TV, but the ability of campaigns to better target demographic groups, says Mr. Dowd. "You figure out who your voters are in California and what they watch and what they listen to . . . You can get someone who watches certain sports, or A&E or Lifetime," he says. "It's a better way to be more efficient with each dollar spent. We're going to spend more on cable than anyone in California has ever spent before."

Pennsylvania Republican Sen. Rick Santorum also has been spending liberally on cable ads statewide to boost his support in his race against Democrat Bob Casey Jr. Of late, Mr. Santorum appears to have made some inroads; Mr. Casey still continues to lead in various polls, but the margins have narrowed.

It's not just cable; broadcasters, too, are projecting robust political ad sales this fall to Wall Street. "We expect our local stations to have a great fall because of some extra heavy political spending," says Leslie Moonves, CBS Corp.'s chief executive officer.

In June, Media General Inc., owner of 25 daily newspapers, including the Tampa Tribune, and 30 broadcast stations, said its broadcast division expects to see $36 million in political advertising revenue this year, 12% more than 2002. Gannett Co. executives told investors it expects "very significant" broadcast advertising this fall driven by local stations in Florida, Colorado and California.

"You're going to have some potential inventory problems in some local markets," says Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of Campaign Media Analysis Group, the political ad tracking firm based in Arlington, Va. "In Ohio, those markets are going to be jam-packed with ads." He adds that some campaigns already are going negative. "The rhetoric is already very strong for this early in the election," he says. "Everyone is playing for keeps."

For instance, in Indiana's second congressional district, which has been targeted by Democrats as a potential pick-up, incumbent Republican Chris Chocola and his Democratic opponent Joe Donnelly have been jousting in a series of TV ads over late tax payments. In early August, Mr. Chocola released an ad accusing his opponent of paying his property taxes late 15 times. "Joe Donnelly wants to raise our taxes," it said. "Even worse, he's delinquent paying his own."

A few days later, Mr. Donnelly's campaign fired back with a TV ad suggesting Mr. Chocola also was guilty of late tax payment when he was chief executive of an agricultural company. The Democrat later said records showed the congressman also had once paid a late property tax bill -- of $66.26.

 

Commercial Centers Top markets for political advertising year-to-date through Aug. 13, in millions: Los Angeles   $76 San Francisco 43 San Diego       28 Chicago          24 New York        19 Sacramento     15 Atlanta           14 Detroit            13 Grand Rapids     8 Boston             7 Source: TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group